How the common football markets settle
Test passport
- Checked
- 8 Oct 2026 (main check) and 13 Oct 2026 (second look)
- Device
- Phone browsers: Android Chrome; iPhone Safari settings on 13 Oct
- What we did
- Read the football list and two Champions League prices on 13 Oct
- What we did not do
- No account completed; no deposit, withdrawal or bet made
Most football slips use a handful of markets, and each one has a precise winning condition. Unless the market name says otherwise, extra time and penalties do not count.
| Market | Wins when |
|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1 = home win, X = draw, 2 = away win after 90 minutes |
| Double chance | Two of the three results: 1X, X2 or 12 |
| Draw no bet | Your team wins; a draw returns the stake |
| BTTS (GG / NG) | GG: both teams score; NG: at least one side does not |
| Over 2.5 goals | Three or more goals in the match |
| Asian handicap -1 | Your team wins by 2 or more; by exactly 1, stake returned |
| Correct score | The exact final score |
Double chance and draw no bet in naira
Both markets give up price for cover. Say the home side is 2.10 to win. Double chance 1X on the same game might be priced around 1.30, so ₦1,000 returns ₦1,300 if the home side wins or draws. Draw no bet sits in between: at, say, 1.55, ₦1,000 returns ₦1,550 on a home win and the ₦1,000 comes back on a draw.
Reading a football price before you bet
A decimal price turns into the bookmaker’s estimate of the chance when you divide 1 by it. A home win at 2.20 means 1 / 2.20 ≈ 45.5%. If your own reading of the match puts the home side clearly above that, the price may be worth taking; if not, skip the game.
Bookmakers also build a margin into every set of prices, which is why the three 1X2 chances add up to more than 100%. On 1win.ng the Champions League prices on 13.10 were in decimal format, with more markets behind a “+99” counter on each match, and our margin worked out from two of those matches shows how much the book keeps in the price.
Betting statistics in football: what to read
Statistics help you judge whether a price is too short or too long. They do not tell you the result.
Numbers worth checking
Look at home and away records separately, because many teams score far more at home. Goals scored and conceded over the last 10 league games tell you more than the last 3. Expected goals (xG), where you can find it, shows whether a team’s results match the chances it creates. Team news counts most: a missing first-choice keeper or striker moves a price, and line-ups usually appear about an hour before kick-off.
Where statistics mislead
Five games is a small sample; one red card or one deflected goal changes it. A newly promoted team has no useful history at its new level. And the bookmaker sees the same public numbers you do, so a statistic that everyone quotes is already in the price.
Premier League and Champions League betting from Nigeria
Time zones decide when you can check team news. Nigeria is on WAT (UTC+1) all year. While the UK is on summer time, a 15:00 Premier League kick-off is 15:00 in Lagos; after the clocks go back in late October it becomes 16:00. Champions League evening games kick off at 21:00 Central European time, which is 20:00 WAT in summer and 21:00 WAT in winter.
Premier League betting usually comes with many markets per match at bookmakers, such as goal lines, corners and player markets as well as 1X2. For Champions League betting, watch the weekend before: a club that rested players in its league game may field its strongest side midweek, and the reverse also happens.
Kick-off times in Lagos (WAT, UTC+1)
Nigeria does not change its clocks; the gap moves when Europe does.
A football betting strategy that keeps losses small
No method takes the margin out of the prices, and anyone selling a “no-lose” football system is selling something that does not exist. What you can control is how much each bad run costs. Any honest plan starts with how much you can lose this month without it hurting.
Flat stakes from a fixed bankroll
Set a football bankroll you can afford to lose, for example ₦50,000, and stake the same 2% on every bet: ₦1,000. Ten losing bets in a row then cost ₦10,000, a fifth of the bankroll, and you are still in control. Raising the stake after a loss to win it back is how a ₦1,000 habit becomes a ₦20,000 problem.
Keep a betting record
Write down the date, the match, the market, the price, the stake and the result for every bet. After 50 bets, add up the total staked and the total returned. If the return is below the stake, the record shows which markets are costing you. If you feel you cannot stop, our page on betting limits and help lines lists who to call in Nigeria.
Accumulators of favourites
Joining favourites into one slip raises the price and the risk together. Four teams at 1.40 give 1.40 × 1.40 × 1.40 × 1.40 ≈ 3.84, and 1 / 3.84 is about 26%: by the bookmaker’s own prices the slip loses about three times in four.
Choosing soccer betting sites
Sites are worth comparing on a few points you can check in two minutes. Read the licence the footer names and whether it covers your state. Look at the naira cashier: which wallets, bank transfer and USSD options it lists. Count the markets on a Premier League match and check that the rules for postponed games are easy to find. The checklist for choosing a betting site in Nigeria goes through each check.
On 1win.ng you can bet from a phone browser without installing anything. It still needs the same care as a bet in a shop: read the slip before you confirm it, and learn the shorthand on it, such as GG, NG and 1X, from our football slip codes in the glossary.
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What changed on this page
- First version of the page published.
- Rewritten from our check of 1win.ng on 8 and 13 October: every 1win figure now marked by source.
- Proofread again; scores aligned across pages; new layout and images.
Found a mistake? Write to [email protected] and we will date the fix here.
FAQ
Do extra time and penalties count in a football bet?
Not in standard markets such as 1X2, totals and BTTS, which settle after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Markets named "to qualify" or "to lift the trophy" do include extra time and penalties.
Does an own goal count for both teams to score?
Yes, an own goal counts as a goal for the team that benefits from it. If the away side's only goal is an own goal by the home defender, BTTS can still settle as GG.
Do penalty shoot-out goals count towards over 2.5?
No. Shoot-out penalties are not match goals, so a 1-1 draw decided on penalties is under 2.5.
Does a red card change my pre-match bet?
No, a pre-match bet stays at the price you took. Only an in-play price reacts to the card.
Is it better to bet before kick-off or during the match?
Neither is better by default. Pre-match gives you time to read team news; in-play prices move quickly after every goal, card or injury, so a slow mobile connection can leave you looking at an old price.